The story so far

About tonight:

By winning in Cyprus and defeating Israel, Wales would go to 20 points. That would mean Israel and Cyprus could only reach 18 points at best.

Even if Bosnia draw in Brussels, the maximum total they could then reach from their last three games would also be 18.

 So Wales would be in the finals, with Belgium almost certainly joining them from Group B.

If Bosnia defeat Belgium and also take maximum points from their other games, the most they could get to would be 20.

Wales would already be on that tally, meaning a draw at home to Andorra would be enough. It would also mean Belgium could only get to 20 points themselves and because Wales have the better head-to-head results against them that would stand Coleman's side in good stead.

But what if we don't win these September games? Well that’s feasible and why the mathematics make it hard to work out. But even if Wales were to lose the next three games - Cyprus (away), Israel (home), Bosnia (away) they have a get out of jail free card at home to Andorra.

That would take them to 17 points and in truth that could well be enough, anyhow.
Remember, the Wales doomsday scenario would be based on us losing and the other sides collecting close on maximum points hauls, but they have to play each other anyhow so something has to give.

Bosnia and Israel each have to visit Belgium, while Cyprus also play them. The Belgians are likely to win most of those games.

Israel also meet Cyprus, while the Cypriots take on Bosnia at home in their last match.

It's all too much of an ice cream headache for me. I think I will bin the Cyprus game and just go out for a couple of sun downers with the burglar after work before heading back home for the new Danny Baker sitcom. If we beat Cyprus I will be glued to Sky Sports One on Sunday night for the Israel game though.